Preseason Look: Red Sox 2008 Part 2 of 2

Written Early February 2008

17 days left until pitchers and catcher report for the Red Sox. Baseball will soon be in the full swing of things and fantasy leagues will begin drafting. This is part 2 of my Red Sox 2008 individual player evaluations/ projections. In part 1 I evaluated all the hitters in the starting 9, if you have yet to check that out then I suggest you do so. This week lets look at the pitchers. I will analyze each pitcher currently on the Red Sox roster who are expected to be major contributors throughout the season.

#1 Starter The “Ace” – Josh Beckett: He was probably the most valuable pitcher in baseball last season when you factor in what he did in the postseason. He has become far and away the most dominant postseason pitcher in baseball of his generation. The regular season for whatever reason he is slightly worse. I can see a short trip to the DL but nothing significant and about a 18-7 record with around 3.50 era and about 195 strikeouts. I’m being conservative in saying he takes a minor step back but he should still be one of the best pitchers in baseball. Of course if he matches or exceeds last year and wins his first Cy Young I believe that won’t surprise anyone who watched him the postseason.

#2 Starter – Daisuke Matsuzaka: While Curt Schilling might still be called by some the #2 starter Dice-K is expected to get the call here for the second game in the Japan Series against the A’s. Matsuzaka should cement his spot as Boston’s #2, but not by much with the improving Lester and Buchholz. After a year of adjustment Dice-K should be better and more consistent after knowing how much of a marathon our seasons really are. I see his numbers rivaling Beckett’s with a 3.60 era (a good decline from last years 4.40) with 190 strikeouts and 16 wins. The biggest reason for the improvement should be his control, which I believe he lacked sometimes due to fatigue.

#3 Starter – Curt Schilling: Whether Schilling detractors want to admit it or not Schilling did just fine in the playoffs. Backed by a hot offense Schilling did just enough with what stuff he had to win. He just knows how to win. With that said signs of decline are obvious which Schill is well aware of, which is why he is set to retire after the season. I think he has just enough stuff and guts to keep his era just under 4.00. 14-9 record with 135 k’s seem reasonable if he is able to stay healthy the whole year.

#4 Starter – Tim Wakefield: Wakefield, like Schilling, may also retire after the end of the season. Especially if back problems continue to persist and he continually has to miss time. I don’t see any way both Schilling and Wake will stay off the DL but you couldn’t ask for a better insurance policy than Buchholz. A 4.30 era with 13-10 record seems reasonable. Perhaps just breaking 100 k’s as well. He can go on streaks but his best pitching is behind him. Again I would not be surprised that he has to miss a month to two months of the season due to lingering issues from the elbow, shoulder, back or elsewhere.

#5 Starter – Jon Lester: I was very impressed by Lester’s postseason performance and I believe he thrived in that World Series start. It is a great story and I think this year he will cement himself as a good #3 or #4 starter. 12 wins and a 4.15 era is a good start considering there will be probably some bumps in the road as he adjusts to his first full season in the bigs. My biggest knock on him is his control which hopefully will become more consistent. If not he will have a high WHIP. I expect Lester to improve and if I had to pick one Sox pitcher to surprise all and win a ton of games it’s him. He can win 15 games this year with our offense and bullpen but so far he doesn’t get much press as a pitcher outside of that one start.

Injury Replacement Starter – Clay Buchholz: Make no mistake about it Clay Buchholz will be a major asset to the 2008 Red Sox. While it is starting to seem likely that unless an injury takes place Buchholz will either start the season in Pawtucket or in the bullpen. This is a very tough projection because of his role. I think when the injury does come up he will take the job and run with it. I project around 9 wins with a 3.80 era pitching in both the rotation and the bullpen. Whatever his role is to start the season by the end of it hes going to be one of our better pitchers.

Middle Relief (Lefty) – Javier Lopez: Nothing too exciting here, a serviceable 2nd lefty with an era around 4 with around 40 innings pitched. A couple wins and losses here and there.

Set-up – Mike Timlin: His numbers from last year won’t change drastically. He may miss some time due to injury but is a steady veteran presence who will pitching 50 to 60 innings of 3.50 era baseball.

Set-up- Manny Delcarmen: Delcarmen had a solid a year and this year he will be counted upon in big innings. At times last year he was brilliant. Hopefully he can put it all together. A 3.50 era will be pretty consistent with 60 innings. Essentially he will share the righty set-up role with Timlin.

Primary Set-up (Lefty) – Hideki Okajima: What a valuable player Okajima was to the 2007 champions. He was called upon in so many big situations and succeeded. He really was one of the best relief pitchers in baseball last year, closer or not. A 2.22 era will be difficult to repeat but he will still be a big asset with a very high 2 era or a very low 3 era. He’ll throw in a handful of saves too when we are resting Papelbon as well.

Closer – Jonathan Papelbon: I see a very similar year to last year for our closer. To me he is the best closer in baseball. I don’t think anyone who watches him pitch will doubt he can match last years numbers but it will be so difficult that his era will probably rise. An era of 2.25 with a couple extra saves opportunities to get just about 40 is what I will give him.

I left out Kyle Snyder because he is probably just going to do mop up duty and I also left out Taverez since there is a good chance he will be traded and it would take multiple injuries for him to get into our rotation if he stays. There are a few pitchers in the minors like Craig Hansen and Dan Kolb who may get a shot but I don’t see them emerging as big inning guys unless injuries give them that opportunity. Overall a solid year. Dice-K, Lester, Buchholz, Delcarmen should all improve from last year while there will be some decline in Schill and Wake. Overall our team to me is probably the best team in baseball until the Tigers, Indians, Yankees, or Angels (or perhaps the Mariners considering the breaking news of Bedard’s pending arrival) can prove otherwise. Consistency in personnel and management will let this team have great chemistry from day one.