Preseaon Look: Red Sox 2008 Part 1 of 2

Written Early February 2008

Seeing how there is almost literally nothing going on with the Red Sox right now I thought it would be a good time for predicting/ evaluating. Today I will do the hitters and my next post will deal with the pitchers. Just as in my last post I evaluated Jacoby this time I will evaluate the team except trying to be more concise. The reason for this blog was a fan’s evaluation of the sox’s chance of repeating in 08. He cited how the young guys have one more year under them and therefore will be that much better. A rebuttal to that argument was another year isn’t going to be a good thing for some of our veterans. I’ll break it down position by position.

C – Jason Varitek: Last year he had a solid season where his true value was calling games and helping the pitchers who had an outstanding year start to finish. The captain finished offensively with 17 homers and .255 average. Do I expect decline given his age? No, not really, although he is one of the more likely hitters to have to miss some time. I expect more of the same with perhaps a couple less home runs. Still very valuable to the team, still not bad offensive numbers from a catcher, and still will still be underrated nationally.

1B – Kevin Youkilis: Once again I expect more of the same from Youkilis and that is a good thing. I expect around a .290 to .300 average with 15 home runs, very similar to last year. Another gold glove is also very possible. He is a major piece to this team and so far has been very consistent. Nice to see the homegrown talent reach a high level.

2B – Dustin Pedroia: I don’t want to become redundant but once again more of the same from Pedroia. Somewhere around 10 home runs (he had 9 last year) sounds about right for this small guy. His average at .317 was amazing for a rookie, especially since he was hitting around .150 to begin May. I expect a similar batting average with a good chance to increase and battle for a batting title just a Bill Mueller did a few years ago. I don’t see a way he finishes with less than a .300 average.

SS – Julio Lugo: This is definitely a tough one to project. Some people believe that his leash is not going to be long considering we have Jed Lowrie blossoming in the minors. Lugo was very solid defensively and I can see somewhat the same. Last year offensively he was pretty abysmal. Hitting .237 to Red Sox management is unacceptable especially when he is paid $10 million a year. He was great on the base paths stealing 33 bases for a team that historically doesn’t run much. I expect Lugo to become more comfortable in Boston and hitting around .265 or .270 with about the same amount of home runs. He should keep his job for the whole year because those numbers are not bad for a 8 or 9 hitter which he will be mostly.

3B – Mike Lowell: I would say he was the Red Sox MVP last year. Expectations are high after the post-season for Lowell who also got a nice 3 year contract this year. He is going to hit number 5 for the Red Sox so I think that means even if he declines he is going to get over 100 RBIs (just not 120 and lead the team again). His average last year of .324 also will decline to probably the .290 range, .280 is also very possible. Homers will stay right around 20, Fenway Park fits him, though I would take the under just slightly. All around not a Red Sox MVP like season but a pretty good #5 hitter and back to his defensive expertise.

LF – Manny Ramirez: Manny will be back to being Manny all year again this year. Manny is training like a madman in Arizona this month and is showing great dedication. I can see a good amount more home runs (20 to 30-35) with an average just above .300 and around 110 rbis. This will probably lead to us picking up his ‘09 option a little over halfway through the season. Somehow his contract has now become reasonable.

CF- Jacoby Ellsbury: Read my last blog post to get a more in-depth look at Jacoby. All I’ll say here is that I think Jacoby will have a good year starting near the bottom of the order but most likely finishing hitting lead off. He’ll hit for average, get steals, and score runs. A very good (not great) campaign and pre-season favorite for rookie of the year.

RF – JD Drew: To me this is the most interesting, as well as hard, to project. JD Drew disappointed all of us last season. Yes he received some redemption for that huge grand slam in game 6 of the ALCS but his regular season wasn’t something he must have been proud of. A .270 average with 10 home runs is below his standards. This year I say he gets more comfortable in Boston and hopefully his family situation is more settled. I am going to be risky and say he hits about .280 with 20 home runs. After winning the world series there is going to some pressure lifted off of him to at least start the season. Yes, you heard it right I have faith in JD Drew, what is going on?

DH – David Ortiz: The 2006 version of Ortiz and the 2007 version were both very productive players, albeit different. His homers went down 19 and his average went up 45 points. Strange. His knee was an issue but after minor surgery that should be behind him. I expect around .310 average with about 40 home runs. Most likely to be the Red Sox MVP this year with all around great campaign with several clutch hits.

Well there you have it. My preseason predictions for the Sox hitters. If my predictions hold true the offense should be improved, yes because of the young players but also because the old players did not decline significantly. If this holds true for the pitchers then we should be in good shape. Of course like all predictions some will be wrong but I feel like all my predictions are very reasonable. Obviously injuries are foreseen but likely. At the end of the year it should be interesting to see how far or how close my projections were. Part 2 coming fairly soon. If you’d like to agree or disagree with any of them please post in the comments or on my wall.