Written Early February 2008
As a die-hard Red Sox fan I might as well start my blogging career (that will definitely not be only regarding Boston sports) with a hopefully interesting view of Jacoby Ellsbury. After watching him help my fantasy team and the red sox to championships I easily became a big fan of his, just like all or at least most Boston sport fans. To me how can you dislike this guy. He seems like a polite, well-meaning kid just happy to be able to play in the bigs. In his debut filling mostly in for Manny Ramirez, Jacoby hit .353 with 3 homers, 20 runs, 18 RBIs, and 9 stolen bases in 33 games (some as purely a defensive-replacement. Most of this was done at the bottom of the red sox order with some occasions in the lead-off position. In the postseason he had a few big hits and brought a lot of energy to the Sox. How can you not love this guy and just keep thinking what we could get by trading Coco Crisp (absolutely snubbed from the gold -glove by those not paying attention).
When his name came up a few weeks later in Johan Santana deals I was
somewhat disappointed. Here was the type of player franchises dream of. The only knock on his game is lack of power. I asked myself how could we trade him, and several other good young players, namely Jon Lester, even if it was for the best ace in baseball. A friend of my brought me to my senses and said this is Santana we’re talking about him and Beckett would be unstoppable and Crisp is still very serviceable. I came around to the idea and to me its worth it unless we give up both him and Lester along with Lowrie and Masterson. The recent scuttlebutt is that the Mets are the front-runner for Santana now. The first thought that came to my mind was what a relief. Now the Yankees don’t get him and we don’t have to pay that huge salary and give up all those prospects. Don’t get me wrong if we landed Santana I would be even more excited about this season than ever but I can’t help but want to watch Buchholz, Lester, and Ellsbury grow for the next several years. Its more fun to root for home grown talent than high priced free agents or traded players.
I recently read a saber-metric expert’s projection for 2008 on Ellsbury. .320 avg, 5 homers, 78 runs, 46 rbis, and 42 stolen bases. Very reasonable and may be very close to the truth. Personally I’d adjust it to more along the lines of .325, 8 homers, 75 runs, 55 RBIs, and 32 stolen bases. For a rookie (last year he didn’t qualify) those are outstanding numbers. I’d start the year batting him 9th instead of lead-off to keep the pressure off of him, as well as I think Pedroia-Youkilis is a great 1-2 considering both their OBPs. He may not run as much as many people think because the red sox are careful of wasting outs on being caught stealing. All in all a very solid starter (not superstar) in his rookie year. It’ll be interesting to how it plays out because certainly I would not be shocked to see him finish with 10 homers with a .350 avg after the season but we must aim on the conservative side and remember one important thing. He was born in 1983 (hes 24) and there will probably be a few bumps in the road, especially when pitchers get their scouting report on him.
To answer the question I posed in the title: we just simply don’t know yet. I’d say there is a good chance that he becomes a superstar catalyst to our awesome offense but I also see him just becoming an average regular that isn’t the complete package. To me it will be somewhere in between but a lot closer to superstar than average. Whether he deserves all this love and hype or not we must always remember that as fans we should enjoy our home-grown talent and this kid who is realizing his dream right before our eyes. This is a great time to be a Red Sox fan, do not advance the untrue reputation that all Boston sports fans are obnoxious and lets enjoy it not only for ourselves but for every Red Sox fan that won’t be able to see it but we know they wished they could. Thanks for reading everybody!
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