Penny Signing Imminent?

According to foxsports.com's Ken Rosenthal the Red Sox are close to signing Brad Penny to a one-year deal. Penny would certainly become our fifth starter with the potential to be at least more productive than Wakefield.
My analysis of this deal is that it's a great low-risk signing typical of past Theo moves, not all of which were extremely productive but did add depth (i.e. Bartolo Colon in 2008, Wade Miller in 2005). I think the Penny signing will end up being a great value to the Sox and John Farrell probably can help him out since Farrell is now regarded as one of the best pitching coaches in the game. I will admit that I am disappointed the Sox did not try harder with Ben Sheets but it sounds like he is going to eventually end up in Texas, where he has a home and he has a great relationship with his old pitching coach Mike Maddux. I also think this makes it less likely Smoltz will come to Boston if things don't work out with Atlanta. Smoltz seemingly wants a starter job and unless once Smoltz is healthy we make Wakefield a long reliever we would have no room for him barring injury. Hopefully this isn't the last Sox pitching signing and they continue to be aggressive in adding more live arms.
Not to be forgotten is the implications this move would have on the current roster. This move allows us to keep Justin Masterson in the bullpen as well as be patient with Clay Buchholz. This move also makes it a little more likely they would be willing trade some of their pitching prospects for a catcher, although a small move like this doesn't by any means mean they have to or should. However, come June or July if Theo assesses the catching situation as an immediate need that must be filled to win and Penny is pitching well and is healthy he will be more apt to make the deal. I think our only answer to all of the Yankees' signings are to be aggressive in the pitching market with high-reward guys so hopefully this is just the beginning.

Teixiera Fallout

This year’s Christmas must be a happy one for Brian Cashman. Hank and Hal are probably continually patting him on the back for landing at least three out of four of the top free agents, according to many experts at least. Don’t let the Red Sox glass is half full fans fool you. The Mark Teixiera signing with the Yankees greatly increased their chances and hurt ours of winning a world series. Unless Lars Anderson becomes a great all around hitter then this failure will have long-term ramifications. In the short-term Mike Lowell is not a bad fallback option. It is unclear if Teixiera ever really wanted to play for the Red Sox and was going to go the Yankees the whole time with the exact price the only thing yet to be determined. Do I think the Yankees are now going to win it all? Simply put no. They are still going to need to build a lot of chemistry to deal with the top teams from last year that are largely still intact. I still see a very flawed/aging team that will make the playoffs but face off against better or more likely healthier pitching. Of course that is just a guess and a lot can change in TEN months. Either way the Yankees generated a ton more interest to their network and new stadium which will at the very least increase revenues but also win more games for them.
Now on to what the front office should now be focusing on: essentially, what do we do from here? The Red Sox have money to spend now. The Sox were willing to spend around 21 million a year on Teixiera plus money saved to spend on the catching situation. Do the Sox now signer a lesser offensive free agent like Abreu, Dunn, or Burrell? No there is no significant upgrade like Teixiera would have brought. They are all very flawed hitters. I would however like to see what Rocco Baldelli could do as a fourth outfielder seeing how that spot should get a decent amount of at-bats. All they can really do is try to further upgrade their pitching. So far their biggest offseason acquisition is Wes Littleton, not a name that inspires fans. I know there are some fans who want to see Derek Lowe return but the Mets will certainly offer more and I believe he takes it. Also, at this stage of his career I believe he is far better suited to pitching in the National League never mind the American League East. ESPN’s Keith Law then ranks Oliver Perez and Randy Johnson as the next best free agent pitchers. Two obviously terrible fits to this team. That brings me to Ben Sheets. This seems like a perfect fit to me for the Red Sox. It gives the Red Sox fans a big name to hang our hopes on. We still don’t have a set in stone fifth starter and might end up having to put the under achieving Buchholz or Masterson who I think would be a bigger help in the bullpen. Also, Beckett usually doesn’t make every start and Wakefield is getting pretty old it’s a good idea to save guys like Buchholz and Bowden to fill in these spots if they are pitching up to it. That is why the Sox still could really use another starter. Since Sheets himself is injury prone he can probably be had for a two-year $30 million dollar contract which is somewhat reasonable for what he has accomplished when he’s healthy. We don’t need him to make every start and we are known to do a good job keeping injury-prone pitchers healthy.
I would love to see Sheets bring a front of the rotation presence to the back of our rotation. It makes too much sense so I hope the Sox are doing their due diligence on him and hopefully will make an aggressive offer soon. That money while can be saved for next offseason is not going to be used too much elsewhere this year. They have the money now it’s time to go out and spend it the surplus with pragmatism. The Sox could also possibly add another arm to the bullpen. Fuentes is most likely going to the Angels at this point and they will be willing to offer more. A guy like Brandon Lyon would make some sense to add depth. Smoltz is another wildcard but until he shows he’s not going to be going back to Atlanta I’m not going to get too excited. Though he may not be ready to pitch before May or June he is the perfect veteran fifth starter/potential big bullpen arm. Imagine Smoltz in the 8th inning of a playoff game. I would take my chances with that.

Varitek and the Catching Woes

First off let me get this out of the way. I know I haven’t posted in 8 months. Also, the Rays kicked our butt in the ALCS. Sure we got it to game 7 and sure we had a great chance to win that game and that really speaks to the heart of these players. Remember we were only 7 outs away from losing at home in game 5 7-0. The Rays were able to eek out a lot of the close games as well as just blow us out in the others. They did what they had to do to win...... barely. That said with a healthy Lowell (Kotsay was great defensively but he didn’t even have one RBI in the ALCS) and a healthy Beckett (Beckett said he had trouble even putting his shirt on before game 6 of the ALCS). If they were healthy I believe the whole series complexion would have changed and we would have won in about 6 games. Alas that is a very moot point because the reality is the Rays were the better team at the time much to the chagrin of this potential World Series Game 1 ticketholder.

Moving on to the title of the blog. Let's be honest Varitek was brutal at the plate this year. Never more than in the ALCS where he managed only one hit (albeit a homer). Fans will argue that he brings so much to the game defensively, in preparation, and in calling the games that it’s not a big deal he doesn’t hit well anymore. After the playoffs Jon Lester almost went as far as crediting Varitek as the main reason the young Sox’s pitchers have succeeded so well in these past few years. He clearly still sees him as their pitching MVP. While especially with preparation and calling the game I won’t argue I still cannot get past his bat. The Sox bottom third of the line up was absolutely atrocious the entire playoffs. Talk about just giving away innings. Theo thinks every out is precious and I would think he is even more disappointed about that development than even I am. More than likely Jed Lowrie will be our starting SS going into 2009. He was injured for most the season and next year I assume he will be a bit better offensively and maybe even defensively where he has already been solid. He is a young option and is extremely cheap; our offensive holes need to be filled elsewhere. A catcher who can hit seems like a big need for the Sox. I am a huge Varitek fan. He embodies what this team now stands for but lets face it he is a 36 year old catcher. His bat speed has diminished greatly and his contact rate has plummeted to Mirabelli-esque proportions. With all that said I want Varitek to return.



I said I wanted him to return but not as an everyday catcher. I want to see Varitek to return in a platoon. In 2008, he only hit .201 (with a measly .323 slugging) off lefties in 328 at bats. That is unacceptable from an everyday player even one as valuable as Varitek. Against righties however Varitek hit .284 with 5 homers and in only 94 at bats. Those are numbers that we all can live with. He bring so much to the game as almost an extra coach on the field that we can just overpay him (we have the money) for a one-year deal with a performance option (he wants to come back, I don’t think that’s a big secret) where he can lead the team and mentor a young catcher (perhaps Kottaras or someone brought in by trade). Kottaras hit only .243 in Triple A this year but did hit 22 homers and is only 25. Yes this brings up Wakefield issues but I’m not so sure he will back.

A lot of my reasoning behind resigning Varitek also has to due with the extremely weak free agent market. Who would you rather have? Rod Barajas? Johnny Estrada? Pudge Rodriguez? Gregg Zaun? Theo knows all this; he has even admitted it’s a very weak field. All things considered with Varitek I still rather have him and the intangibles he brings to the table rather than any of those guys. Sox have some pieces to trade and if it’s a reasonable deal they need to go get a young offensive-minded catcher (obviously Jarrod Saltalamacchia is ideal) above all else. If not, the worst case scenario is we have a decent one-year stop gap then we can try to sign Victor Martinez (I expect the Indians to not reach his demands because of Shoppach’s emergence) or try another trade. While all of this is not an ideal scenario for the Red Sox they must make the best of the situation like the rest of us.

Preseason Look: Red Sox 2008 Part 2 of 2

Written Early February 2008

17 days left until pitchers and catcher report for the Red Sox. Baseball will soon be in the full swing of things and fantasy leagues will begin drafting. This is part 2 of my Red Sox 2008 individual player evaluations/ projections. In part 1 I evaluated all the hitters in the starting 9, if you have yet to check that out then I suggest you do so. This week lets look at the pitchers. I will analyze each pitcher currently on the Red Sox roster who are expected to be major contributors throughout the season.

#1 Starter The “Ace” – Josh Beckett: He was probably the most valuable pitcher in baseball last season when you factor in what he did in the postseason. He has become far and away the most dominant postseason pitcher in baseball of his generation. The regular season for whatever reason he is slightly worse. I can see a short trip to the DL but nothing significant and about a 18-7 record with around 3.50 era and about 195 strikeouts. I’m being conservative in saying he takes a minor step back but he should still be one of the best pitchers in baseball. Of course if he matches or exceeds last year and wins his first Cy Young I believe that won’t surprise anyone who watched him the postseason.

#2 Starter – Daisuke Matsuzaka: While Curt Schilling might still be called by some the #2 starter Dice-K is expected to get the call here for the second game in the Japan Series against the A’s. Matsuzaka should cement his spot as Boston’s #2, but not by much with the improving Lester and Buchholz. After a year of adjustment Dice-K should be better and more consistent after knowing how much of a marathon our seasons really are. I see his numbers rivaling Beckett’s with a 3.60 era (a good decline from last years 4.40) with 190 strikeouts and 16 wins. The biggest reason for the improvement should be his control, which I believe he lacked sometimes due to fatigue.

#3 Starter – Curt Schilling: Whether Schilling detractors want to admit it or not Schilling did just fine in the playoffs. Backed by a hot offense Schilling did just enough with what stuff he had to win. He just knows how to win. With that said signs of decline are obvious which Schill is well aware of, which is why he is set to retire after the season. I think he has just enough stuff and guts to keep his era just under 4.00. 14-9 record with 135 k’s seem reasonable if he is able to stay healthy the whole year.

#4 Starter – Tim Wakefield: Wakefield, like Schilling, may also retire after the end of the season. Especially if back problems continue to persist and he continually has to miss time. I don’t see any way both Schilling and Wake will stay off the DL but you couldn’t ask for a better insurance policy than Buchholz. A 4.30 era with 13-10 record seems reasonable. Perhaps just breaking 100 k’s as well. He can go on streaks but his best pitching is behind him. Again I would not be surprised that he has to miss a month to two months of the season due to lingering issues from the elbow, shoulder, back or elsewhere.

#5 Starter – Jon Lester: I was very impressed by Lester’s postseason performance and I believe he thrived in that World Series start. It is a great story and I think this year he will cement himself as a good #3 or #4 starter. 12 wins and a 4.15 era is a good start considering there will be probably some bumps in the road as he adjusts to his first full season in the bigs. My biggest knock on him is his control which hopefully will become more consistent. If not he will have a high WHIP. I expect Lester to improve and if I had to pick one Sox pitcher to surprise all and win a ton of games it’s him. He can win 15 games this year with our offense and bullpen but so far he doesn’t get much press as a pitcher outside of that one start.

Injury Replacement Starter – Clay Buchholz: Make no mistake about it Clay Buchholz will be a major asset to the 2008 Red Sox. While it is starting to seem likely that unless an injury takes place Buchholz will either start the season in Pawtucket or in the bullpen. This is a very tough projection because of his role. I think when the injury does come up he will take the job and run with it. I project around 9 wins with a 3.80 era pitching in both the rotation and the bullpen. Whatever his role is to start the season by the end of it hes going to be one of our better pitchers.

Middle Relief (Lefty) – Javier Lopez: Nothing too exciting here, a serviceable 2nd lefty with an era around 4 with around 40 innings pitched. A couple wins and losses here and there.

Set-up – Mike Timlin: His numbers from last year won’t change drastically. He may miss some time due to injury but is a steady veteran presence who will pitching 50 to 60 innings of 3.50 era baseball.

Set-up- Manny Delcarmen: Delcarmen had a solid a year and this year he will be counted upon in big innings. At times last year he was brilliant. Hopefully he can put it all together. A 3.50 era will be pretty consistent with 60 innings. Essentially he will share the righty set-up role with Timlin.

Primary Set-up (Lefty) – Hideki Okajima: What a valuable player Okajima was to the 2007 champions. He was called upon in so many big situations and succeeded. He really was one of the best relief pitchers in baseball last year, closer or not. A 2.22 era will be difficult to repeat but he will still be a big asset with a very high 2 era or a very low 3 era. He’ll throw in a handful of saves too when we are resting Papelbon as well.

Closer – Jonathan Papelbon: I see a very similar year to last year for our closer. To me he is the best closer in baseball. I don’t think anyone who watches him pitch will doubt he can match last years numbers but it will be so difficult that his era will probably rise. An era of 2.25 with a couple extra saves opportunities to get just about 40 is what I will give him.

I left out Kyle Snyder because he is probably just going to do mop up duty and I also left out Taverez since there is a good chance he will be traded and it would take multiple injuries for him to get into our rotation if he stays. There are a few pitchers in the minors like Craig Hansen and Dan Kolb who may get a shot but I don’t see them emerging as big inning guys unless injuries give them that opportunity. Overall a solid year. Dice-K, Lester, Buchholz, Delcarmen should all improve from last year while there will be some decline in Schill and Wake. Overall our team to me is probably the best team in baseball until the Tigers, Indians, Yankees, or Angels (or perhaps the Mariners considering the breaking news of Bedard’s pending arrival) can prove otherwise. Consistency in personnel and management will let this team have great chemistry from day one.

Preseaon Look: Red Sox 2008 Part 1 of 2

Written Early February 2008

Seeing how there is almost literally nothing going on with the Red Sox right now I thought it would be a good time for predicting/ evaluating. Today I will do the hitters and my next post will deal with the pitchers. Just as in my last post I evaluated Jacoby this time I will evaluate the team except trying to be more concise. The reason for this blog was a fan’s evaluation of the sox’s chance of repeating in 08. He cited how the young guys have one more year under them and therefore will be that much better. A rebuttal to that argument was another year isn’t going to be a good thing for some of our veterans. I’ll break it down position by position.

C – Jason Varitek: Last year he had a solid season where his true value was calling games and helping the pitchers who had an outstanding year start to finish. The captain finished offensively with 17 homers and .255 average. Do I expect decline given his age? No, not really, although he is one of the more likely hitters to have to miss some time. I expect more of the same with perhaps a couple less home runs. Still very valuable to the team, still not bad offensive numbers from a catcher, and still will still be underrated nationally.

1B – Kevin Youkilis: Once again I expect more of the same from Youkilis and that is a good thing. I expect around a .290 to .300 average with 15 home runs, very similar to last year. Another gold glove is also very possible. He is a major piece to this team and so far has been very consistent. Nice to see the homegrown talent reach a high level.

2B – Dustin Pedroia: I don’t want to become redundant but once again more of the same from Pedroia. Somewhere around 10 home runs (he had 9 last year) sounds about right for this small guy. His average at .317 was amazing for a rookie, especially since he was hitting around .150 to begin May. I expect a similar batting average with a good chance to increase and battle for a batting title just a Bill Mueller did a few years ago. I don’t see a way he finishes with less than a .300 average.

SS – Julio Lugo: This is definitely a tough one to project. Some people believe that his leash is not going to be long considering we have Jed Lowrie blossoming in the minors. Lugo was very solid defensively and I can see somewhat the same. Last year offensively he was pretty abysmal. Hitting .237 to Red Sox management is unacceptable especially when he is paid $10 million a year. He was great on the base paths stealing 33 bases for a team that historically doesn’t run much. I expect Lugo to become more comfortable in Boston and hitting around .265 or .270 with about the same amount of home runs. He should keep his job for the whole year because those numbers are not bad for a 8 or 9 hitter which he will be mostly.

3B – Mike Lowell: I would say he was the Red Sox MVP last year. Expectations are high after the post-season for Lowell who also got a nice 3 year contract this year. He is going to hit number 5 for the Red Sox so I think that means even if he declines he is going to get over 100 RBIs (just not 120 and lead the team again). His average last year of .324 also will decline to probably the .290 range, .280 is also very possible. Homers will stay right around 20, Fenway Park fits him, though I would take the under just slightly. All around not a Red Sox MVP like season but a pretty good #5 hitter and back to his defensive expertise.

LF – Manny Ramirez: Manny will be back to being Manny all year again this year. Manny is training like a madman in Arizona this month and is showing great dedication. I can see a good amount more home runs (20 to 30-35) with an average just above .300 and around 110 rbis. This will probably lead to us picking up his ‘09 option a little over halfway through the season. Somehow his contract has now become reasonable.

CF- Jacoby Ellsbury: Read my last blog post to get a more in-depth look at Jacoby. All I’ll say here is that I think Jacoby will have a good year starting near the bottom of the order but most likely finishing hitting lead off. He’ll hit for average, get steals, and score runs. A very good (not great) campaign and pre-season favorite for rookie of the year.

RF – JD Drew: To me this is the most interesting, as well as hard, to project. JD Drew disappointed all of us last season. Yes he received some redemption for that huge grand slam in game 6 of the ALCS but his regular season wasn’t something he must have been proud of. A .270 average with 10 home runs is below his standards. This year I say he gets more comfortable in Boston and hopefully his family situation is more settled. I am going to be risky and say he hits about .280 with 20 home runs. After winning the world series there is going to some pressure lifted off of him to at least start the season. Yes, you heard it right I have faith in JD Drew, what is going on?

DH – David Ortiz: The 2006 version of Ortiz and the 2007 version were both very productive players, albeit different. His homers went down 19 and his average went up 45 points. Strange. His knee was an issue but after minor surgery that should be behind him. I expect around .310 average with about 40 home runs. Most likely to be the Red Sox MVP this year with all around great campaign with several clutch hits.

Well there you have it. My preseason predictions for the Sox hitters. If my predictions hold true the offense should be improved, yes because of the young players but also because the old players did not decline significantly. If this holds true for the pitchers then we should be in good shape. Of course like all predictions some will be wrong but I feel like all my predictions are very reasonable. Obviously injuries are foreseen but likely. At the end of the year it should be interesting to see how far or how close my projections were. Part 2 coming fairly soon. If you’d like to agree or disagree with any of them please post in the comments or on my wall.

Jacoby Ellsbury: Real Deal or Red Sox Hype?

Written Early February 2008

As a die-hard Red Sox fan I might as well start my blogging career (that will definitely not be only regarding Boston sports) with a hopefully interesting view of Jacoby Ellsbury. After watching him help my fantasy team and the red sox to championships I easily became a big fan of his, just like all or at least most Boston sport fans. To me how can you dislike this guy. He seems like a polite, well-meaning kid just happy to be able to play in the bigs. In his debut filling mostly in for Manny Ramirez, Jacoby hit .353 with 3 homers, 20 runs, 18 RBIs, and 9 stolen bases in 33 games (some as purely a defensive-replacement. Most of this was done at the bottom of the red sox order with some occasions in the lead-off position. In the postseason he had a few big hits and brought a lot of energy to the Sox. How can you not love this guy and just keep thinking what we could get by trading Coco Crisp (absolutely snubbed from the gold -glove by those not paying attention).

When his name came up a few weeks later in Johan Santana deals I was
somewhat disappointed. Here was the type of player franchises dream of. The only knock on his game is lack of power. I asked myself how could we trade him, and several other good young players, namely Jon Lester, even if it was for the best ace in baseball. A friend of my brought me to my senses and said this is Santana we’re talking about him and Beckett would be unstoppable and Crisp is still very serviceable. I came around to the idea and to me its worth it unless we give up both him and Lester along with Lowrie and Masterson. The recent scuttlebutt is that the Mets are the front-runner for Santana now. The first thought that came to my mind was what a relief. Now the Yankees don’t get him and we don’t have to pay that huge salary and give up all those prospects. Don’t get me wrong if we landed Santana I would be even more excited about this season than ever but I can’t help but want to watch Buchholz, Lester, and Ellsbury grow for the next several years. Its more fun to root for home grown talent than high priced free agents or traded players.

I recently read a saber-metric expert’s projection for 2008 on Ellsbury. .320 avg, 5 homers, 78 runs, 46 rbis, and 42 stolen bases. Very reasonable and may be very close to the truth. Personally I’d adjust it to more along the lines of .325, 8 homers, 75 runs, 55 RBIs, and 32 stolen bases. For a rookie (last year he didn’t qualify) those are outstanding numbers. I’d start the year batting him 9th instead of lead-off to keep the pressure off of him, as well as I think Pedroia-Youkilis is a great 1-2 considering both their OBPs. He may not run as much as many people think because the red sox are careful of wasting outs on being caught stealing. All in all a very solid starter (not superstar) in his rookie year. It’ll be interesting to how it plays out because certainly I would not be shocked to see him finish with 10 homers with a .350 avg after the season but we must aim on the conservative side and remember one important thing. He was born in 1983 (hes 24) and there will probably be a few bumps in the road, especially when pitchers get their scouting report on him.

To answer the question I posed in the title: we just simply don’t know yet. I’d say there is a good chance that he becomes a superstar catalyst to our awesome offense but I also see him just becoming an average regular that isn’t the complete package. To me it will be somewhere in between but a lot closer to superstar than average. Whether he deserves all this love and hype or not we must always remember that as fans we should enjoy our home-grown talent and this kid who is realizing his dream right before our eyes. This is a great time to be a Red Sox fan, do not advance the untrue reputation that all Boston sports fans are obnoxious and lets enjoy it not only for ourselves but for every Red Sox fan that won’t be able to see it but we know they wished they could. Thanks for reading everybody!